02/13/2023 Synopsis
The stock market finished higher ahead of tomorrow's CPI release.
Market Overview
Equity indices all climbed higher by more than 1% with the Nasdaq leading the way. Every S&P sector was positive with the exception of energy which fell 0.25%. Technology was the leading sector.
The shorter end of the US Treasury yield curve all rose while the longer end fell. The yield on the 2-year note gained 0.3 bps to 4.52%. The yield on the 10-year note fell 3.7 bps to 3.70%. Below is a chart with a comparison of the yield on several Treasuries of varying duration.
The US Dollar index $DXY lost 0.27% as it dropped to 103.29.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
M/M: January was an inside month as all price action was contained inside December’s high and low. The past 3-months have been in balance.
W/W: $ES_F just had an inside week with all price action inside the prior week’s high and low.
D/D: $ES_F ended the string of OTFD, as it traded above the prior day’s high.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: 4123.25 to 4126.25; 4129 to 4130.50
RTH Excess: 4101.5 to 4119; 4149.50 to 4150.75
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was flat to slightly long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was a few ticks above the prior day’s high. Inventory sold off during the Asian open. Supply ran out nearly 25-points beneath Friday’s close as a strong bid was met at 4078.75. $ES_F then slowly rotated back up for the remainder of the session, rising above the overnight open and making new session highs. At 4115, supply was met with a double top / weak high several TPO-periods before RTH. Wholesale backfilled 15-handles in search of the bid. Overnight VPOC was 4103.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
RTH gapped up at the open and was above the prior day’s high by 2.5 points and inside the T+2 range. The gap closed shortly after the open but supply couldn’t push the auction lower than 4101.50. Buyers lifted the auction above the overnight high during A-period. There was a seller and absorption at 4125, right at the 5-day composite VPOC and close to last week’s VWAP. Once the offer was taken out, $ES_F was OTFU from A through D-period. It continued climbing higher from E through J-period until finally hitting some supply at 4149.50, which was above the value area from Thursday. Large wholesalers backfilled as they tried to lure in more buyers so $ES_F dropped 20-handles down to 4130.50. Buyers came back in and lifted the auction to a new high of 4150.75 after the NYSE close.