02/10/2023 Synopsis
Bonds fell and equities were mixed to finish the week as investors await next week's new CPI print.
Market Overview
The Nasdaq was the only index to finish Friday in the red. The other indices were down a good amount on the day but managed to recover. Eight S&P sectors were positive. Energy led and consumer discretionary lagged.
US Treasury yields were all green. The 2-year yield gained 3.3 bps to 4.52%. The 10-year yield climbed 7.8 bps to 3.74%. Below is a chart with a comparison of the yield on several Treasuries of varying duration.
The US Dollar index $DXY was up 0.38% to 103.58.
Events next week:
Here are some of Friday’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
M/M: January was an inside month as all price action was contained inside December’s high and low. The past 3-months have been in balance.
W/W: $ES_F just had an inside week with all price action inside the prior week’s high and low.
D/D: For the third straight session, $ES_F traded below the prior day’s high and continues to OTFD.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (Friday)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of Friday’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 4069.75 to 4072.25; 4101.50 to 4104.25
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was short. Price action through the Japan session and the London open was contained near the prior day’s VPOC and above the LOD. Buyers couldn’t trade above 4098.25. A weak high / double top was put in a strapped longs from the previous day provided supply. In the final hours of the overnight session, supply pushed the auction through the prior day’s low to 4060.75, where a bid was finally hit and short covering followed. Overnight VPOC was 4072.50.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
RTH opened one tick inside the prior day’s low. It was also beneath the T+2 low. $ES_F rotated back and forth in a 30-point range in the opening hour. It climbed above the overnight high but there was a lack of follow through to take out overhead supply. The entire session was in balance and rotational in a 35-point channel. Buyers couldn’t lift the offer above 4104.25 and supply couldn’t drop the bid lower than 4069.75.