01/30/2023 Synopsis
Stocks and bonds fell ahead of FOMC, key job figures and earnings from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet later this week.
Market Overview
Equity indices all ticked lower to begin what’s going to be a busy week. The Nasdaq fell the most while the Dow slid the least. Ten S&P sectors sold off with energy getting hit the most. Consumer staples held up the best and was the only sector in the green.
The yields on T-notes and T-bonds all went higher. The rate on the 2-year note gained 3.5 bps to 4.23%. The rate on the 10-year note climbed 3.7 bps to 3.54%. Below is a chart with a comparison of the yield on several Treasuries of varying duration.
The US Dollar index $DXY moved up 0.3% to 102.24.
Crude oil futures slid 2% to 77.90.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
M/M: Despite falling in December, $ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. $ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: For the fifth straight week, $ES_F traded above the prior week’s low and is OTFU.
D/D: $ES_F is ended the streak of OTFU. It’s in balance inside a larger prior balance area.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 4029.50 to 4032; 4072.50 to 4078
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was just inside the prior day’s VAL. Inventory during the overnight session was mostly short. There was a lack of buying to sustain an early move higher inside Friday’s value area. Sellers lowered the auction 40-points beneath Friday’s ETH close. $ES_F also fell beneath Friday’s low. At 4040, supply couldn’t lower the bid and $ES_F rotated up nearly 17-points on short covering going into RTH. VPOC for the overnight session was 4048.75.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open gapped down below the prior day’s low, but was inside the T+2 range. In the IB period, or opening hour, there was a 25-point inventory correction which filled the opening gap. At 4078, several points inside of Friday’s VAL, buyers failed to lift the offer higher. This resulted in supply moving $ES_F lower for much of the day. Any responsive bids were absorbed as $ES_F fell below the overnight range. At 4029.50, just shy of the T+2 low, sellers fizzled out and shorts covered to stabilize the auction. The ETH session ended at 4039.75.