Market Overview
Equity indices all ticked lower to begin what’s going to be a busy week. The Nasdaq fell the most while the Dow slid the least. Ten S&P sectors sold off with energy getting hit the most. Consumer staples held up the best and was the only sector in the green.
The yields on T-notes and T-bonds all went higher. The rate on the 2-year note gained 3.5 bps to 4.23%. The rate on the 10-year note climbed 3.7 bps to 3.54%. Below is a chart with a comparison of the yield on several Treasuries of varying duration.
The US Dollar index $DXY moved up 0.3% to 102.24.
Crude oil futures slid 2% to 77.90.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
M/M: Despite falling in December, $ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. $ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: For the fifth straight week, $ES_F traded above the prior week’s low and is OTFU.
D/D: $ES_F is ended the streak of OTFU. It’s in balance inside a larger prior balance area.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 4029.50 to 4032; 4072.50 to 4078
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was just inside the prior day’s VAL. Inventory during the overnight session was mostly short. There was a lack of buying to sustain an early move higher inside Friday’s value area. Sellers lowered the auction 40-points beneath Friday’s ETH close. $ES_F also fell beneath Friday’s low. At 4040, supply couldn’t lower the bid and $ES_F rotated up nearly 17-points on short covering going into RTH. VPOC for the overnight session was 4048.75.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open gapped down below the prior day’s low, but was inside the T+2 range. In the IB period, or opening hour, there was a 25-point inventory correction which filled the opening gap. At 4078, several points inside of Friday’s VAL, buyers failed to lift the offer higher. This resulted in supply moving $ES_F lower for much of the day. Any responsive bids were absorbed as $ES_F fell below the overnight range. At 4029.50, just shy of the T+2 low, sellers fizzled out and shorts covered to stabilize the auction. The ETH session ended at 4039.75.