01/23/2023 Synopsis
Stocks climbed higher with the Nasdaq leading the pack once again as bonds dropped.
Market Overview
Stock indices all rose to begin the week. The Nasdaq had the biggest gain percentage-wise and the Dow had the smallest. Every S&P sector ticked higher led by Technology. Energy was the day’s weakest performer.
US Treasury yields were all higher as bonds went lower. The yield on the 2-year note jumped 5.5 bps to 4.23%. The 10-year yield gained 3.3 bps to finish at 3.52%.
The US Dollar index $DXY had a small gain on 0.02%, ending at 102.01.
Crude oil gave up 0.02% and fell to 81.62.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: Despite falling in December, $ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. $ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: For the fourth straight week, $ES_F traded above the prior week’s low. It fell beneath but recovered and closed above both the 10-week and 40-week MA’s.
D/D: $ES_F is OTFU and all of the day’s price action was above the 200-day MA.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: 4012.50 to 4016.75
RTH Excess: 3986.25 to 4022; 4051 to 4056.75
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was mostly short but lacked the supply to trade down into the upper set of single prints from the prior day. After failing to hit the bid below 3980.25, inventory corrected long prior to RTH and rose above the prior day’s high. 3984.75 was the overnight VPOC.
Range: 19.75
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was above the prior day’s high and T+2 high. Trapped shorts from the prior day supplied the bid which kept the market up and absorbed sellers. At the opening bell, $ES_F sold off, closed the overnight gap but couldn’t bid below 3986.25. Supply shut off and $ES_F staged a strong rally. From A through E-period, the auction was OTFU before encountering some supply and balancing for a few TPO periods. Once supply was absorbed, the auction continued higher before failing to raise the offer above 4056.75. Sellers pushed the market lower in search of the bid in what turned out to be a 40-points reversal. Supply shut off again underneath VWAP. Inventory corrected long again and closed at 4037.
Range: 70.50