01/20/2023 Synopsis
Stocks were mixed on the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the only positive index.
Market Overview
Stocks fell for the week but every index was positive on Friday, with the Nasdaq leading the way. Every S&P sector was up. Communications had the largest gain and health care the smallest. In individual names, SIVB 0.00%↑ was the biggest gainer and GS 0.00%↑ the biggest loser.
US Treasury yields all rose Friday. The 2-year gained 4.5 bps to 4.17%. The 10-year yield climbed 9.1 bps to 3.48%.
The US Dollar index $DXY lost 0.06% to end the day at 101.99.
Crude oil jumped 1.28% to close at 81.64.
Here are some of Friday’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: Despite falling in December, $ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. $ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: For the fourth straight week, $ES_F traded above the prior week’s low. It fell beneath but recovered and closed above both the 10-week and 40-week MA’s.
D/D: $ES_F traded above the prior day’s low on Friday and is in balance.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (Friday)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of Friday’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: 3930.50 to 3932.50; 3954.25 to 3961.75; 3965.75 to 3967.50; 3973.25 to 3977.75
RTH Excess: 3912.25 to 3921.75; 3988.75 to 3990.50
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight was rotational and mostly long. The price range was mostly contained in a 20-point range inside the prior day’s value area. Overnight VPOC was 3923.50.
Range: 21.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and underneath the T+2 low. There was supply initially which pushed ES down 20-points but failed to get underneath the overnight low. Buying from short covering prevented any further drop and the market rotated up. Buyers lifted the offer as $ES_F rose above the overnight high and prior day’s value area during B-period. $ES_F continued to rise after the opening hour, climbing above the prior day’s high and filling the gap in search of supply. Later in the afternoon, the auction continued rising into the value area from Wednesday before hitting supply at 3990.50. RTH ended at 3988.
Range: 78.25