Market Overview
Equities indices were mixed to begin the short week. Every index was red with the exception of the Nasdaq, up 0.14%. The Dow saw the deepest decline of 1.14%. Five S&P sectors were positive with tech leading the way. Materials was the worst performing sector as it slid 1%.
US Treasury yields were all up along the yield curve. The yield on the 3-month was up 3.6 bps to 4.72%. The 2-year yield climbed 1.5 bps to 4.21%. The yield on the 10-year note gained 2.5 bps to 3.56%.
The US Dollar index $DXY fell 0.17% to 102.38.
Crude continues to rise and has the 2023 intraday high in its sights. It was up 0.4% and finished the day at 80.18.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: Despite falling in December, $ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. $ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: For the third straight week, $ES_F traded above the prior week’s low. It has also risen and closed above both the 10-week and 40-week MA’s.
D/D: $ES_F broke a string of four green days. It continues to OTFU.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 4002.75 to 4004; 4031.25 to 4035.25
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at Friday’s close. The CME and futures market was partially open yesterday. $ES_F was short in a range from 3996.75 and 4028.25. This range aws mostly inside Friday’s value area with the top end of the range exceeding Friday’s high by a couple of points. Today’s overnight open was inside of Friday’s value area. The overnight session was entirely inside of the value area in a 20-point range from 4000.5 to 4021.5. The overnight session was mostly short the entire overnight session but corrected long right before the start of RTH. VPOC was 4007.50.
Range: 21
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was inside of Friday’s value area and also inside the T+2 range. The first half hour of the US open, or A-period, $ES_F was directionless as is moved in a 15-point range. Buyers tried to get above Friday’s high but responsive sellers helped move the auction lower towards Friday’s close. In B-period, supply was not nearly as strong as $ES_F pushed through Friday’s high and rallied nearly 20-points. At 4035.25, buyers could no longer lift the offer and supply came back in to move the market lower. In C-period, supply pushed $ES_F 20-handles lower and towards the bottom of the opening range. $ES_F was caught rangebound for the remainder of the day. Trapped longs above 4021 supplied a wall of offers while trapped shorts underneath 4000 created a wall of bids. $ES_F’s price action couldn’t break in either direction outside of this range. RTH closed at 4009.
Range: 32.50