01/06/2023 Synopsis
Non-farm payroll data revealed December added slightly more jobs than anticipated. Wage growth slowed which gave investors hopes that inflation would continue to slow. The market rallied.
Market Overview
The major stock indices all rose more than 2% following a stronger than expected non-farm payroll figure. It was their best day of 2023 thus far. All 11 sectors climbed higher with Materials (+3.44%) leading and Health Care lagging (+0.92%).
US Treasury yields all slid for their worst day of the new year. The 2-year yield fell 20 bps to 4.26%. It’s down nearly 10% since its November high. The 10-year yield dipped 16 bps to 3.56%. It is down 16% since the late October high.
The US Dollar index $DXY gave up 1.18% to close at 103.91. $DXY is down 9% since the late September high.
Crude was slightly up 0.14% to finish at 73.77.
Events this week:
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for $ES.
M/M: Despite falling in December, $ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. $ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: $ES ended 4 consecutive weeks of red. It’s also OTFU as for the second straight week, price has failed to trade below the prior week’s low.
D/D: $ES made a new 10-day high and is threatening to trade above 3934.50 for the first time in 14-sessions.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: 3875 to 3885.50; 3904.50 to 3911.25
RTH Excess: 3829 to 3842.50; 3926.75 to 3928.75
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight started off long and rose above the prior day’s value area. After failing to lift the offer beyond 3849 with a double top, $ES corrected down. Sellers pushed the auction down 30-points, beneath the prior day’s low. When NFP data was released at 8:30am, $ES leaped 55-handles to get above the prior overnight high and previous day’s high. At 3876.25, several ticks above Wednesday’s VPOC, supply held and put pressure on price. VPOC during the overnight was 3846.50
Range: 57.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped up and was above the prior day’s high. It was also inside the T+2 range. The US open was volatile as the overnight gap was filled. $ES rose up and fell back into the prior day’s range and value area in a selloff that spanned 45-handles. Supply shut off at 3829, with the market failing to bid lower and retest the previous day’s low. $ES rotated up and erased all losses from the opening selloff. The auction climbed above the opening range and took out the overnight high, previous day’s high and T+2 high. $ES eventually made a new 10-day high. At 3928.75, $ES failed to offer higher and supply moved the market lower in search of buyers. The session closed slightly 15-points lower at 3913.75.
Range: 99.75