01/04/2023 Synopsis
Stocks register gains in an volatile session. The US labor market remains tight and manufacturing continues to slump. The Fed's FOMC minutes reveal that members believe rates need to remain elevated.
Market Overview
Stocks rose with the S&P 500 leading the indexes, up 0.75%. The Russell gained 0.64% to trail the pack. Every S&P 500 sector was up with real estate gaining 2.29% to lead the way. Energy was the only sector to close red for the day.
Most US Treasury yields fell as bonds ascended again. The 2-year yield slipped 1.9 bps to 4.36%. The 10-year yield slid 5.7 bps to 3.69%.
The US Dollar index $DXY fell 0.4% to 104.26.
Crude oil futures dropped further today. It lost 5.32% to finish the day at 72.84.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: Despite falling in December, ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: The final week of 2022 was an inside week of ES. It was the third consecutive week closing under the 10-week MA.
D/D: ES has been in balance for 12 straight sessions between 3788.50 and 3934.50. Today’s session was an inside day with all price action contained inside the prior day’s high and low.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3836.50 to 3845.50; 3895 to 3896.25
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Overnight Session (Globex)
6pm EST - 9:30am EST
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was 100% long. There was a lack of supply as the auction couldn’t tick lower than 3839.25. ES rotated and got long as buyers lifted the market above the prior day’s value area. As RTH approached, ES was making new highs for the overnight session. Buyers ran out of steam and couldn’t lift the offer beyond 3870 before wholesale backfilled to search for demand.
Range: 30.75
NYSE Session (RTH)
9:30am EST - 5pm EST
The RTH open was above the prior day’s value area but inside its high. It was also 1-tick above the T+2 high. The opening hour was volatile with price action spanning a 50-point range. At 10am, ISM and JOLTS data was released resulting in a sell off. ES fall back into the prior day’s value area before supply shut off at 3836.50. Short covering began and over the next three TPO periods, ES rallied 60-points. The rally fell short of the prior day’s high as supply was met at 3896.25. ES continued to ping-pong back and forth for the remainder of RTH, creating lower highs and higher lows. There was a 45-point selloff following the 2pm release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. This was followed by a 35-point rally to recapture some losses. ES ended the session in positive territory and above VWAP at 3871.25.
Range: 59.75