01/03/2023 Synopsis
Stock indexes gave up ground while bonds gained in the new year's first day of trading.
Market Overview
Following the S&P’s worst year since 2008, most US equities fell in the first day of trading in 2023. The Dow Jones performed the best, ending nearly flat on the day. The Nasdaq fell the most, down 0.76%. Four S&P sectors were up on the day, led by communications. Energy was hit the hardest on the downside, losing 3.50%.
US Treasury yields all fell as bonds rose. The 2-year yield gave up 3.3 bps to 4.37%. The 10-year yield slid 8.8 bps to 3.74%.
The US Dollar index $DXY was up 1.15% to start the year, closing at 104.69.
Crude oil tripped and lost 4.15% to end the session at 76.93.
Events this week:
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: Despite falling in December, ES is still OTFU after failing to erase November’s low. ES failed and close beneath the 10-month MA.
W/W: The final week of 2022 was an inside week of ES. It was the third consecutive week closing under the 10-week MA.
D/D: ES has been in balance for 11 straight sessions. 3788.5 and 3934.5. Today’s session was an outside day.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3814.50 to 3817.25; 3862.50 to 3901.50
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Overnight Session (Globex)
6pm EST - 9:30am EST
Wholesale was flat at the prior day’s close. The overnight open gapped up and was above the prior day’s price range. Inventory during the overnight session was rotational inside a 64-point range. ES fell back into the prior day’s price range. There was a double bottom at 3842.75, where supply shut off and shorts covered. ES rose back above VWAP. At 3906.75, supply was strong and the auction fell as wholesale searched for the bid. As RTH approached, inventory was long above the prior day’s close. VPOC during Globex was at 3882.50.
Range: 64
NYSE Session (RTH)
9:30am EST - 5pm EST
The US open gapped up 14-points over the prior day’s high. It was several ticks inside the T+2 high. The gap was filled in a volatile opening hour with price swinging back and forth in a 50-point range. ES fell and accepted below VWAP by the end of the opening hour, in addition to erasing the overnight low. Strong supply continued to push the auction lower as the prior day’s low was taken out. Supply shut off at 3814.50, where shorts covered. ES rallied 35-points off the low but failed to rise above VWAP. ES closed at 3843.25.
Range: 87